Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Relax, don't do it, when you want to go to it!

I'm not worried about the Texas Rangers. I'm hearing a lot of moaning and whining here in Dallas about how the front office MUST make a move. 

"We haven't done anything!" 
"We didn't add anyone!" 
"All we did was lose players!" 
"How are we going to replace 40 home runs?!"
"We don't have anybody, Jon Daniels is being too conservative."

Hold your horses there pal. This is the time of youth. Any obsessive Ranger fan would know very well about the exciting prospects that the Rangers have been holding onto for years. One reason Daniels has not acquired any big names in trades is because the rest of the league covets our young players. I think the Rangers have the big cards in most would-be deals, and the front office simply isn't willing to give up these talented prospects, and I'm happy with that. The Texas Rangers are still a great ball club, with or without Josh Hamilton; with or without Mike Napoli. I love stats and will use them to make my argument here.

Of the guys that played full time last season, the Texas Rangers still have:

Adrián Beltré>> 95R 36HR 102RBI .321BA .921OBPS (Age 33)
Elvia Andrus>> 85R 9HR 62RBI 21SB .286BA .727OBPS (Age 24)
Ian Kinsler>> 105R 19HR 72RBI 21SB .256BA .749OBPS (Age 30)
Nelson Cruz>> 86R 24HR 90RBI 8SB .260BA .779OBPS (Age 32)

These players alone churn out plenty of batting power to propel any offense, and I will add 3 things: One, that Kinsler had a significant down season in offensive production, in 2011 he had 121R 32HR 89BB 30SB and had a whopping .832 OBPS...two, that Nelson Cruz always has the potential to be a 30HR 100RBI .850OBPS guy...and three, that the 33-year-old Adrián Beltré is the oldest player in the order (which means this is a young lineup).

Recall the time after the 2011 season when C.J. Wilson left, and there was this worry about the starting rotation losing their "Ace". The Rangers younger pitchers stepped up and filled the role, Matt Harrison and Yu Darvish--both of which were All-Stars--more than made up for Wilson's vacancy. I believe that the same is going to be true for the lineup.

Let us also take a look at the numbers of the guys who shared time last season that will now see more action without Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli.

Craig Gentry>> [240 at bats] 31R 1HR 26RBI 13SB .304BA .367OBP (Age 29)
David Murphy>> [457 at bats] 65R 15HR 61RBI .304BA .380OBP .859OBPS (Age 31)
Mitch Moreland>> [327 at bats] 41R 15HR 50RBI 275BA .789OBPS (Age 27)

What we can see is some good batting averages here and superb OBP/OBPS. For hypothetical purposes, we can assume that these guys will see more at bats barring injury, which means we can assume (I know what you may be thinking about ass-u-me) that Moreland could be a 30HR 100RBI player with a healthy wrist, Gentry could be a 75R 30SB threat on the bases, and Murphy...well he can just keep doing what he did last year and that would be fantastic.

I'm content with this core, and I haven't even touched on what makes my nipples hard about next season...Prospects!

In 2013 we can expect, among others, to see more 24 year-old Mike Olt, 19 year-old Jurickson Profar, and 24 year-old Leonys Martin. 

Mike Olt>> [354 at bats in AA] 65R 28HR 82RBI .288BA .398OBP .977OBPS
Jurickson Profar>> [480 at bats in AA] 76R 14HR 62RBI 16SB .281BA .368OBP .820OBPS
Leonys Martin>> [231 at bats in AAA] 48R 12HR 42RBI 10SB .359BA .422OBP 1.033OBPS

Strikeouts are a worry for Olt, he struck out 101 times in 354 at bats in AA for 2012, and 13 times in his 33 MLB at bats. But the potential upside is there for power with him--and all of these guys; they will fill the offensive production left by Hamilton and Napoli. Granted, their numbers are from the minors...but granted-ed they are very very young. They will grow, and they will learn. I think the key is that if these guys show that they can get on base in 2013, then they will be successful and things will take care of itself.

Alas, I am not worried about the lack of deals made by the Texas Rangers' front office this offseason. The team has the tools to win, and they will truly be a competitive club as it is. Besides, I trust Jon Daniels. After all, he's helped get this team to where they are with the recent success, so do you really have much ground to make a fuss because you disagree with the job he is doing? I'm inclined to believe he and his staff have far more expertise on the franchise than any of us.